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Crude Oil weekly technical outlook for Short term / Long term trader

Crude February contract on MCX inched 247 rupees up to settle at 6106. As we can see in chart provided Crude has been moving in a nice rising channel since its reversal from 2009 lows. Commodity has retraced 62% of the prior bullish swing from a low of 4664 to high 7784 and now finding support near 50 weeks SMA keeping longer term trend in place. 10 weeks SMA is below 20 weeks SMA but 20 weeks SMA is above 50 weeks SMA keeping longer term bullish trend in place. MACD is hovering near zero line and now getting closer to signal line from below to above supporting areas of 5650 as strong support. Stochastic is also showing a bullish divergence and supporting a bullish price momentum. Immediate support is now seen near 5990 any sustained move below this level would bring some weakness in this commodity and then a retest to 5900-5800 may happen. Key support would remain at 5630 on closing basis and stability above that level would keep longer term bullish trend in place. Any failure of 5620 may trigger bearishness in this commodity and then we may see 5300 on cards. Resistance is now seen near 6140 any sustained move above that level would bring a retest to December highs around 6250-6270 zones. Key resistance would remain at 6300 and any recovery above that level would bring 6700 and more upside.

Trading range for the week is expected among the key support at 5500 and resistance at 6600.

Recommendation:

  • Now again buying crude on declines around 5950-5900 with stop loss below 5770 for targeting 6000-6100-6200 and more upside might be appropriate.
  • In alternative scenario buying above 6140 with stop loss below 6100 for targeting 6200-6270 and more upside might be appropriate.

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